Ledger / Prediction #1520 · narrative · 6H
Will "wif" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 45% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "wif" (4 distinct creators, rank #188). Last 15m momentum 1.07×.
Made2026-10-11 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.06893859592993536,
"diversity": 0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.4477556423383576
},
"features": {
"term": "wif",
"rank60": 188,
"share15": 0.004477611940298508,
"share60": 0.004179331306990881,
"total15": 334,
"total60": 1315,
"momentum": 1.071370420624152,
"diversity": 0.8,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 155,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968775,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994795833333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4477556423383576
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.305
Log loss0.803
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004409509202453987,
"shareRatio": 1.0879352603688843,
"totalAfter": 10432,
"shareBefore": 0.004032258064516129,
"totalBefore": 7688,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 46,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 31
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 45% that "wif" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.40% → 0.44% (+9%). PARTIAL.
— "wif" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
8b3fa48dabf6bb20b8c667e35581b82cd5a1ffdaccb878456aa8a9d7da7c84baPrevious hash
a22847699124ca5e8ae03480dc0323f6d095cc001748235c71314fa13069dbb9