Ledger / Prediction #1517 · narrative · 6H

Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (4 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-11 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": -3.206489398443187,
      "diversity": -0.7999999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.053806263889159635
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "read",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0014925373134328358,
    "share60": 0.03685410334346505,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 0.04049853823665179,
    "diversity": 0.08333333333333333,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 155,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994795833333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.053806263889159635
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.055

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006230828220858895,
  "shareRatio": 0.6945718034984453,
  "totalAfter": 10432,
  "shareBefore": 0.008975026014568158,
  "totalBefore": 7688,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 65,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 69
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "read" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.90% → 0.62% (-31%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "read" (6H). momentum contributed -3.21 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9ca5343e44823764bd302da3fb410a49087d6fb0863702fc5e201fb551469c5b

Previous hash75bcad1dd43bee0ca40ae947627cf13a38428a9658e9b22df0aa8ddffaa2cff4