Will "altai" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "altai" (3 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.16×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": 0.1500641407423035,
      "diversity": -0.797142857142857
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3418204439702751
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "altai",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.03134328358208955,
    "share60": 0.026975683890577508,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 1.1619087660290097,
    "diversity": 0.08571428571428572,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 155,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968775
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3418204439702751
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009833585476550681,
  "shareRatio": 0.380281690140845,
  "totalAfter": 1322,
  "shareBefore": 0.0264750378214826,
  "totalBefore": 1322,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity