Ledger / Prediction #1514 · narrative · 1H

Will "blockchan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 78% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "blockchan" (29 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.93×.

Made2026-10-11 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 1.368221580060196,
      "diversity": -0.15957446808510636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7763903571323107
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "blockchan",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.1417910447761194,
    "share60": 0.03609422492401216,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 3.9283582089552236,
    "diversity": 0.6170212765957447,
    "launches15": 47,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 155,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968775,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968775
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7763903571323107
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.603

Log loss1.498

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00680786686838124,
  "shareRatio": 0.2,
  "totalAfter": 1322,
  "shareBefore": 0.03555219364599092,
  "totalBefore": 1322,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 78% that "blockchan" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.56% → 0.68% (-81%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "blockchan" (1H). momentum contributed +1.37 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 78% and wrong on "blockchan". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1b597d4bf86247b0c9e916b481345e48b07ff44589031c47fed345cea7e0cdf8

Previous hash0ae4fe00aa636d5e48e8958736c8cbfbc4dea8a1abf6a6b9f6a996c8225058ca