Ledger / Prediction #1508 · narrative · 24H

Will "brand" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "brand" (4 distinct creators, rank #117). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.

Made2026-10-11 10:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 10:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.044865755538866535,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4384224035519625
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "brand",
    "rank60": 117,
    "share15": 0.004761904761904762,
    "share60": 0.004552980132450331,
    "total15": 314,
    "total60": 1207,
    "momentum": 1.045887445887446,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 151,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918608333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996608680555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4384224035519625
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 10:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.315

Log loss0.825

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0021857415244384503,
  "shareRatio": 1.1132110784862703,
  "totalAfter": 43006,
  "shareBefore": 0.0019631107755366194,
  "totalBefore": 46355,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 94,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 91
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "brand" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.22% (+11%). INCORRECT.

— diversity was right but too weak on "brand" (24H). diversity contributed +0.06 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "brand" (24H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc029ea809aa3df65b21786f78bb3a1d8ca78a38a2fd97a4006aecfad01c62e3d

Previous hash015230e0389ba08051d5bc2d302c1728a3fe9b7a3baf45da3e8760b911f4beaf