Will "animates" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
92 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "animates" (31 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.93×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.436852599692241,
"momentum": 0.6563924077440583,
"diversity": -0.49565217391304345
},
"rawProbability": 0.49969910422673036
},
"features": {
"term": "animates",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.14761904761904762,
"share60": 0.07657284768211921,
"total15": 314,
"total60": 1207,
"momentum": 1.9278249678249677,
"diversity": 0.33695652173913043,
"launches15": 46,
"launches60": 92,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 31
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 151,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918608333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996608680555555
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.49969910422673036
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00006975770822675906,
"shareRatio": 0.04078430978237987,
"totalAfter": 43006,
"shareBefore": 0.0019846834214216373,
"totalBefore": 46355,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 3,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 92
}Predicted 50% that "animates" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.01% (-96%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "animates" (24H). diversity contributed -0.50 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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