Ledger / Prediction #1501 · narrative · 6H
Will "animates" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
92 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "animates" (31 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.93×.
Made2026-10-11 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.436852599692241,
"momentum": 0.6563924077440583,
"diversity": -0.49565217391304345
},
"rawProbability": 0.5295442894193474
},
"features": {
"term": "animates",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.14761904761904762,
"share60": 0.07657284768211921,
"total15": 314,
"total60": 1207,
"momentum": 1.9278249678249677,
"diversity": 0.33695652173913043,
"launches15": 46,
"launches60": 92,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 31
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 151,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918608333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986434722222223
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5295442894193474
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 16:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.280
Log loss0.754
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0003011443485243927,
"shareRatio": 0.028992678315171536,
"totalAfter": 9962,
"shareBefore": 0.012052928075461811,
"totalBefore": 7633,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 3,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 92
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "animates" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.21% → 0.03% (-98%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "animates" (6H). momentum contributed +0.66 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5b89f2ee286dd09d80d32274474dc037f5f43175bb5831ef8959cb7ea5e3b62aPrevious hash
52701db0b5cee70984e255e8fabf6165a7c4f69f8a379fcd6be6c5783b478157