Will "future" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 76% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "future" (5 distinct creators, rank #138). Last 15m momentum 3.14×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.143478044206976,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.7583176396735718
},
"features": {
"term": "future",
"rank60": 138,
"share15": 0.014285714285714285,
"share60": 0.004552980132450331,
"total15": 314,
"total60": 1207,
"momentum": 3.137662337662338,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 151,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918608333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918608333333333
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7583176396735718
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.004240282685512367,
"shareRatio": 1.014894709809964,
"totalAfter": 1415,
"shareBefore": 0.00411522633744856,
"totalBefore": 1215,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 6,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 5
}Predicted 76% that "future" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 0.42% (+3%). PARTIAL.
— "future" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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