Ledger / Prediction #1491 · narrative · 24H

Will "markodex" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1194 launches in the last hour referenced "markodex" (20 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.53×.

Made2026-10-11 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": 0.9263577171792177,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5615760444866414
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "markodex",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.064453125,
    "share60": 0.025523012552301255,
    "total15": 255,
    "total60": 1194,
    "momentum": 2.5252945696721314,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 152,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952158333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998006597222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5615760444866414
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.315

Log loss0.825

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00032690421706440013,
  "shareRatio": 0.5168931656795335,
  "totalAfter": 42826,
  "shareBefore": 0.0006442883834804459,
  "totalBefore": 46563,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "markodex" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.03% (-49%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "markodex" (24H). momentum contributed +0.93 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcf64e3a5673e6530205bf8da0a11e8c18e753cb93d54cb5b6a4068093329345c

Previous hash7b2291e8b99b003633d969c5ba5b3c1b098daff59ea06128a9e450708fee7963