Ledger / Prediction #1487 · narrative · 6H
Will "markodex" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
30 of 1194 launches in the last hour referenced "markodex" (20 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.53×.
Made2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2687639203842082,
"momentum": 0.9263577171792177,
"diversity": -0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.6145751885114032
},
"features": {
"term": "markodex",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.064453125,
"share60": 0.025523012552301255,
"total15": 255,
"total60": 1194,
"momentum": 2.5252945696721314,
"diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
"launches15": 16,
"launches60": 30,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 20
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 152,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952158333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992026388888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6145751885114032
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.378
Log loss0.953
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0008383986585621463,
"shareRatio": 0.22439931079857695,
"totalAfter": 9542,
"shareBefore": 0.003904724716907458,
"totalBefore": 7683,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 8,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 30
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 61% that "markodex" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.39% → 0.08% (-79%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "markodex" (6H). momentum contributed +0.93 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
10504fc1dcfc036e1c240b3d60100ccdc804208d3627f0c6c187c108d753d318Previous hash
d7cc0489f193931e57529c48d280c0ac0b70a7c613d1154c069eb751415c2004