Ledger / Prediction #1486 · narrative · 6H
Will "fuck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
40 of 1194 launches in the last hour referenced "fuck" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.
Made2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3119162312519754,
"momentum": 0.19079730293703287,
"diversity": -0.81
},
"rawProbability": 0.37399860640553195
},
"features": {
"term": "fuck",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.041015625,
"share60": 0.033891213389121336,
"total15": 255,
"total60": 1194,
"momentum": 1.2102141203703705,
"diversity": 0.075,
"launches15": 10,
"launches60": 40,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 152,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952158333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992026388888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.37399860640553195
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.140
Log loss0.468
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0038775937958499267,
"shareRatio": 0.4282965569059197,
"totalAfter": 9542,
"shareBefore": 0.009111024339450735,
"totalBefore": 7683,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 37,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 70
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 37% that "fuck" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.91% → 0.39% (-57%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "fuck" (6H). diversity contributed -0.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
d7cc0489f193931e57529c48d280c0ac0b70a7c613d1154c069eb751415c2004Previous hash
4d2fa42a3d3fbfe5b97210f6c04fbfd5a14504616798b8cd5549820639e80146