GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1482 · narrative · 1H

Will "fuck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1194 launches in the last hour referenced "fuck" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.

Made2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": 0.19079730293703287,
      "diversity": -0.81
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.35267843996240433
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fuck",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.041015625,
    "share60": 0.033891213389121336,
    "total15": 255,
    "total60": 1194,
    "momentum": 1.2102141203703705,
    "diversity": 0.075,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 152,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952158333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952158333333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.35267843996240433
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.124
Log loss0.435
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.01059001512859304,
  "shareRatio": 0.3244683332866754,
  "totalAfter": 1322,
  "shareBefore": 0.0333889816360601,
  "totalBefore": 1198,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 35% that "fuck" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.34% → 1.06% (-68%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "fuck" (1H). diversity contributed -0.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1324231e2d2ca87899b1fe5a4ff6614bf812ff516e1e21c7f40ca56d447dba84
Previous hash8db63db364f9a90b797758bc5b78327937b20f1fda7a1752b188579ca689b493