Will "club" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 1861 launches in the last hour referenced "club" (12 distinct creators, rank #25). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": -0.9770627702162493,
      "diversity": -0.05294117647058818
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24114036552963158
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "club",
    "rank60": 25,
    "share15": 0.003537735849056604,
    "share60": 0.009398496240601503,
    "total15": 423,
    "total60": 1861,
    "momentum": 0.37641509433962267,
    "diversity": 0.7058823529411765,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965916666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965916666666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24114036552963158
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.025862188126339072,
  "totalAfter": 2066,
  "shareBefore": 0.00909090909090909,
  "totalBefore": 1870,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 17
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity