Ledger / Prediction #147 · narrative · 1H

Will "memecoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1861 launches in the last hour referenced "memecoin" (13 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-09 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 12:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -1.3297296927574427,
      "diversity": -0.5195121951219512
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13780738297219552
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "memecoin",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.00589622641509434,
    "share60": 0.02228786251342642,
    "total15": 423,
    "total60": 1861,
    "momentum": 0.26454876108206415,
    "diversity": 0.3170731707317073,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 246,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965916666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965916666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13780738297219552
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 14:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.019

Log loss0.148

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015004840271055178,
  "shareRatio": 0.6870617448021403,
  "totalAfter": 2066,
  "shareBefore": 0.021925133689839574,
  "totalBefore": 1870,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 31,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 14% that "memecoin" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.19% → 1.50% (-32%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "memecoin" (1H). momentum contributed -1.33 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe18e3fcf4d5e08be0369de49f50353f3398edf9aa4d577994c955bd79bf954af

Previous hash2cdf530d9af9b2f447a63a58d7cdb2cf9041ed4bdb306d650ae679fcfcfd7e94