GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1469 · narrative · 6H

Will "accelerando" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

85 of 1275 launches in the last hour referenced "accelerando" (39 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.18×.

Made2026-10-11 09:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 09:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4249820016084324,
      "momentum": 1.1583617101001844,
      "diversity": -0.34941176470588237
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.637320319314462
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "accelerando",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.21339563862928349,
    "share60": 0.06700626959247649,
    "total15": 320,
    "total60": 1275,
    "momentum": 3.1847115191925814,
    "diversity": 0.4588235294117647,
    "launches15": 68,
    "launches60": 85,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 158,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984919444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997486574074074
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.637320319314462
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.406
Log loss1.014
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015278838808250573,
  "shareRatio": 0.144496261751425,
  "totalAfter": 9163,
  "shareBefore": 0.010887664916100935,
  "totalBefore": 7807,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 64% that "accelerando" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.09% → 0.15% (-86%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "accelerando" (6H). momentum contributed +1.16 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5461a5a8d4b18d7a7e4612df36dfe1f0d70b6502dbd1a00c31a9c3111e7a3507
Previous hash8b4b80c630428de61e855be22b8b82ae2277c9b1b1bd1a5eeba85e7fca263d23