Ledger / Prediction #1460 · narrative · 24H

Will "felix" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1173 launches in the last hour referenced "felix" (5 distinct creators, rank #147). Last 15m momentum 0.36×.

Made2026-10-11 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -1.020082726734389,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3407303199031497
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "felix",
    "rank60": 147,
    "share15": 0.0016891891891891893,
    "share60": 0.004684838160136286,
    "total15": 295,
    "total60": 1173,
    "momentum": 0.3605651105651106,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 149,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997413541666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3407303199031497
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.116

Log loss0.417

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00009431070662296938,
  "shareRatio": 0.24283801827974427,
  "totalAfter": 42413,
  "shareBefore": 0.00042625745950554135,
  "totalBefore": 46920,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 20
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "felix" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.04% → 0.01% (-78%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "felix" (24H). momentum contributed -1.02 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash888ab2ce7f83ff82eb8db7ae9adff7c679d77c7044a68541ad7afafb7086feb2

Previous hashc2f2e700ee193de691b23fe71a44dd609b8506b3a17c39128426f92d9c319baa