Will "dexter" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1173 launches in the last hour referenced "dexter" (16 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.29×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": 0.25480880427171254,
      "diversity": -0.4317073170731707
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4425944473137624
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dexter",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.04560810810810811,
    "share60": 0.03534923339011925,
    "total15": 295,
    "total60": 1173,
    "momentum": 1.2902149137088896,
    "diversity": 0.3902439024390244,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 149,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997413541666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4425944473137624
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00018862141324593875,
  "shareRatio": 0.2212524166548781,
  "totalAfter": 42413,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008951406649616369,
  "totalBefore": 46920,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity