Ledger / Prediction #1455 · narrative · 6H

Will "pliq" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1173 launches in the last hour referenced "pliq" (21 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.36×.

Made2026-10-11 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": 0.306228929783791,
      "diversity": -0.19999999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4954098186038216
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pliq",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.04222972972972973,
    "share60": 0.031090289608177172,
    "total15": 295,
    "total60": 1173,
    "momentum": 1.3582932247315809,
    "diversity": 0.5833333333333334,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 149,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9937925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989654166666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4954098186038216
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.245

Log loss0.684

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00011398609369656902,
  "shareRatio": 0.03728325594611727,
  "totalAfter": 8773,
  "shareBefore": 0.004523181304183943,
  "totalBefore": 7959,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 36
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "pliq" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.01% (-97%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "pliq" (6H). diversity contributed -0.20 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3ec6cf3cf8c0dc1c32c116bb182acc6ee5de5b4c57194f5f683061ba0a26b2db

Previous hashd066484efb404a6c515baf0eff6eee7e1414c3c8d116cd04ee9c580de7db7247