Ledger / Prediction #1443 · narrative · 24H

Will "keeps" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1088 launches in the last hour referenced "keeps" (7 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

Made2026-10-11 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": -2.637481905894376,
      "diversity": -0.6103448275862068
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14281863040489404
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "keeps",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.001937984496124031,
    "share60": 0.027089072543617997,
    "total15": 257,
    "total60": 1088,
    "momentum": 0.07154119038234136,
    "diversity": 0.2413793103448276,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971666666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998819444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14281863040489404
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.020

Log loss0.154

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002395806153189269,
  "shareRatio": 0.4970575892156612,
  "totalAfter": 42157,
  "shareBefore": 0.004833180743926586,
  "totalBefore": 46967,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 101,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 227
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 14% that "keeps" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.24% (-50%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "keeps" (24H). momentum contributed -2.64 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash42cc7d7c47e465025dffa7435ea5421e02b8634c6ea6b1176d5f3c708118c736

Previous hash812afd29f172e97e287f8b8bd933a7f858410777d3a4d0ab3998e0e62a3ca86f