Ledger / Prediction #1440 · narrative · 6H

Will "red" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 20% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 1088 launches in the last hour referenced "red" (7 distinct creators, rank #61). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

Made2026-10-11 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": -1.6044668997120801,
      "diversity": -0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.19903343549380753
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "red",
    "rank60": 61,
    "share15": 0.001937984496124031,
    "share60": 0.009641873278236915,
    "total15": 257,
    "total60": 1088,
    "momentum": 0.20099667774086377,
    "diversity": 0.7,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971666666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995277777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.19903343549380753
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 14:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.642

Log loss1.614

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0021400546902865295,
  "shareRatio": 1.1057508033256962,
  "totalAfter": 8411,
  "shareBefore": 0.0019288728149487644,
  "totalBefore": 8295,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 16
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 20% that "red" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.19% → 0.21% (+11%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "red" (6H). momentum contributed -1.60 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 80% and wrong on "red". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd79930a5516af1bf4afe5dc7982badf71f9b14b2e591bc8c9b641c20f88110e3

Previous hash5850a0209f9a74710e889bcc7ef0c364e2a6b5715979e86cb8c7978081e53b7d