Will "altai" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

56 of 1088 launches in the last hour referenced "altai" (4 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.98×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3623870667451573,
      "momentum": 0.6829596328511243,
      "diversity": -0.8142857142857143
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48277206889176955
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "altai",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.10271317829457365,
    "share60": 0.05188246097337006,
    "total15": 257,
    "total60": 1088,
    "momentum": 1.9797283391644371,
    "diversity": 0.07142857142857142,
    "launches15": 26,
    "launches60": 56,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971666666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971666666666666
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48277206889176955
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0406885758998435,
  "shareRatio": 0.7940730797705619,
  "totalAfter": 1278,
  "shareBefore": 0.05128205128205128,
  "totalBefore": 1092,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 52,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 56
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity