GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1433 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

74 of 1088 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (21 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.61×.

Made2026-10-11 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 09:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40419407711551036,
      "momentum": 0.47916049990043397,
      "diversity": -0.5594594594594594
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5059734951646413
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.11046511627906977,
    "share60": 0.06841138659320478,
    "total15": 257,
    "total60": 1088,
    "momentum": 1.6147182768846573,
    "diversity": 0.28378378378378377,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 74,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971666666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971666666666666
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5059734951646413
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 09:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.244
Log loss0.681
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.08528951486697965,
  "shareRatio": 1.256051550340818,
  "totalAfter": 1278,
  "shareBefore": 0.06776556776556776,
  "totalBefore": 1092,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 109,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 74
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.78% → 8.53% (+26%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.48 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe022bbccfd23c47cabd243706191c39e8f7fc07f79329f9b9d4b3db52030544d
Previous hash4ce7bf8d9bd77837b9a3822f9891c1a07894cc1064941396edc7ea37b3abf8ba