Ledger / Prediction #1428 · narrative · 24H

Will "friendly" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "friendly" (5 distinct creators, rank #23). Last 15m momentum 2.75×.

Made2026-10-11 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": 1.0118642071614745,
      "diversity": -0.6142857142857142
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5016051409444648
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "friendly",
    "rank60": 23,
    "share15": 0.04804270462633452,
    "share60": 0.017465475223395612,
    "total15": 280,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 2.7507241579078046,
    "diversity": 0.23809523809523808,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 142,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918705555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996612731481481
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5016051409444648
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.252

Log loss0.696

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016678977340417928,
  "shareRatio": 0.44290439549658317,
  "totalAfter": 41969,
  "shareBefore": 0.0037820839707632162,
  "totalBefore": 47064,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 70,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 178
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "friendly" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.38% → 0.17% (-56%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "friendly" (24H). momentum contributed +1.01 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash63677af3312da41e24922ff4269e8a21cf6ff67f0fdc36327c9d3c83991335cc

Previous hash52f1a07f0ed96b58d86298186650949c0c9e90a2246ed836c73bfd38401ce11c