Ledger / Prediction #1427 · narrative · 24H

Will "loop" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "loop" (5 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

Made2026-10-11 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": -2.665907269540825,
      "diversity": -0.7064516129032258
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13595061342909753
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "loop",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0017793594306049821,
    "share60": 0.025588952071486596,
    "total15": 280,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 0.06953623679602328,
    "diversity": 0.16129032258064516,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 142,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918705555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996612731481481
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13595061342909753
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.018

Log loss0.146

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003812337677809812,
  "shareRatio": 0.1841098296935622,
  "totalAfter": 41969,
  "shareBefore": 0.002124766275709672,
  "totalBefore": 47064,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 100
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 14% that "loop" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.04% (-82%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "loop" (24H). momentum contributed -2.67 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash52f1a07f0ed96b58d86298186650949c0c9e90a2246ed836c73bfd38401ce11c

Previous hash8fee8c134b04affba3834904645da3ab3c9a1cc84ed0eadc63b0c7b2d397cbb5