Will "sharkdog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "sharkdog" (14 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.16×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": 0.7719589157584178,
      "diversity": -0.4902439024390243
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4996668921067731
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sharkdog",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.07295373665480427,
    "share60": 0.033712428919577576,
    "total15": 280,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 2.1640012005316644,
    "diversity": 0.34146341463414637,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 142,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918705555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996612731481481
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4996668921067731
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000738640425075651,
  "shareRatio": 0.8511802750673889,
  "totalAfter": 41969,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008711541730409655,
  "totalBefore": 47064,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 31,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity