Ledger / Prediction #1424 · narrative · 6H

Will "light" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "light" (4 distinct creators, rank #78). Last 15m momentum 1.80×.

Made2026-10-11 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.5899242618498051,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4880766020211942
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "light",
    "rank60": 78,
    "share15": 0.012455516014234875,
    "share60": 0.006904955320877335,
    "total15": 280,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 1.803851789826251,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 142,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918705555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986450925925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4880766020211942
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 14:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.238

Log loss0.670

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004918234353866962,
  "shareRatio": 0.3352212509432523,
  "totalAfter": 8133,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015936254980079682,
  "totalBefore": 8785,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 14
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "light" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.16% → 0.05% (-69%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "light" (6H). diversity contributed -0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash664d424393a2ff8e140316d72ddb2489bfeb52074c27dba965e4e70986b89136

Previous hash16fb79d3e36ce629a22c036bab74be4c60dcb1078c75e5b0537514bfb13b93a1