Will "claimed" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1281 launches in the last hour referenced "claimed" (5 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": -2.547639719926445,
      "diversity": -0.7064516129032258
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14304765675060435
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claimed",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.0019230769230769232,
    "share60": 0.02457098283931357,
    "total15": 259,
    "total60": 1281,
    "momentum": 0.07826617826617828,
    "diversity": 0.16129032258064516,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 139,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997889699074074
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14304765675060435
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002643486544415337,
  "shareRatio": 0.8903957643524866,
  "totalAfter": 41990,
  "shareBefore": 0.0029716420444897266,
  "totalBefore": 47112,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 111,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 140
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity