Ledger / Prediction #1410 · narrative · 24H
Will "giga" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
33 of 1281 launches in the last hour referenced "giga" (7 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.
Made2026-10-11 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.28306044735485697,
"momentum": -2.6091976129258785,
"diversity": -0.6454545454545454
},
"rawProbability": 0.14358893772453094
},
"features": {
"term": "giga",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.0019230769230769232,
"share60": 0.02613104524180967,
"total15": 259,
"total60": 1281,
"momentum": 0.07359357060849599,
"diversity": 0.21212121212121213,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 33,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 139,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9949352777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997889699074074
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.14358893772453094
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 07:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.021
Log loss0.155
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0019052155275065491,
"shareRatio": 0.7888145921058776,
"totalAfter": 41990,
"shareBefore": 0.0024197656647987776,
"totalBefore": 47112,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 80,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 114
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 14% that "giga" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.19% (-21%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "giga" (24H). momentum contributed -2.61 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
155df19598efe947485324f23959e90f691277d5f3a952c257e8eeded1b2f0ffPrevious hash
270e2c5dd48323f079f28cb2b46bebd82d6c8c3a8a4b5b68b94dbd46b4f9567a