Will "loop" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1281 launches in the last hour referenced "loop" (4 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": -2.5153788577082237,
      "diversity": -0.74
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08388996709296677
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "loop",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0019230769230769232,
    "share60": 0.02379095163806552,
    "total15": 259,
    "total60": 1281,
    "momentum": 0.08083228247162674,
    "diversity": 0.13333333333333333,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 139,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991558796296296
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.08388996709296677
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00024975024975024975,
  "shareRatio": 0.08760336928647579,
  "totalAfter": 8008,
  "shareBefore": 0.0035087719298245615,
  "totalBefore": 9120,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity