Ledger / Prediction #1398 · token · 6H

Will $FAILED still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 20m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 6 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03407773968429842
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "DC3rmoX4s1i2qycdhJz8WjGtdFDQvfuxNU2YdN5bpump",
    "name": "failed",
    "symbol": "FAILED",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 20,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3060.7581663618935,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 6
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 413,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03407773968429842
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.035

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T06:40:05.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3060.7581663618935,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4486.439402539475,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3060.7581663618935,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6121.516332723787
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $FAILED would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,061, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $FAILED (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashae7722feb87817c53f00d9b9b1aae2716394807f18a158169c0956bdc38a29dc

Previous hash71666e36ac7ceebaa9fbb39a8dfaacb6828765860b92604f2e4a0bb8a0e716fe