Will "serious" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1343 launches in the last hour referenced "serious" (3 distinct creators, rank #139). Last 15m momentum 1.61×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.4733425305112501,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4502514919307648
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "serious",
    "rank60": 139,
    "share15": 0.007763975155279503,
    "share60": 0.004836309523809524,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1343,
    "momentum": 1.6053511705685617,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 152,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984825,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999367708333333
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4502514919307648
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005961465089660434,
  "shareRatio": 0.9372419284664703,
  "totalAfter": 41936,
  "shareBefore": 0.0006381485184318564,
  "totalBefore": 47011,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity