Ledger / Prediction #1392 · narrative · 6H

Will "goal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 1343 launches in the last hour referenced "goal" (5 distinct creators, rank #47). Last 15m momentum 0.18×.

Made2026-10-11 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": -1.7066402403904635,
      "diversity": -0.35454545454545455
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15975636390784162
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "goal",
    "rank60": 47,
    "share15": 0.0015527950310559005,
    "share60": 0.00855654761904762,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1343,
    "momentum": 0.1814744801512287,
    "diversity": 0.45454545454545453,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 152,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984825,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997470833333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15975636390784162
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.026

Log loss0.174

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001641206918318394,
  "shareRatio": 0.6277826454995025,
  "totalAfter": 7921,
  "shareBefore": 0.002661556478228468,
  "totalBefore": 9393,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 25
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "goal" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.27% → 0.16% (-38%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "goal" (6H). momentum contributed -1.71 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashae0d7f2888faed3cb873dea363462a9e32d6da28405476b8e302a38897fcd3e6

Previous hashe2b668b8cf1a3ebaf5c05e06f2c0a58241c9dbb20a73b7d2fe2c3a1d0d6ddd11