Ledger / Prediction #1390 · narrative · 6H

Will "lego" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1343 launches in the last hour referenced "lego" (18 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.30×.

Made2026-10-11 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": -1.1958146166244725,
      "diversity": -0.2647058823529412
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.245809623823472
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "lego",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.007763975155279503,
    "share60": 0.025669642857142856,
    "total15": 321,
    "total60": 1343,
    "momentum": 0.30245746691871456,
    "diversity": 0.5294117647058824,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 152,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9984825,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997470833333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.245809623823472
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.060

Log loss0.282

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010099734881959348,
  "shareRatio": 0.20782266271403918,
  "totalAfter": 7921,
  "shareBefore": 0.005110188438198659,
  "totalBefore": 9393,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 48
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 25% that "lego" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.51% → 0.10% (-80%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "lego" (6H). momentum contributed -1.20 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash80f3e038497dcbeb800ac651c486cf18f95568f23c241ba0e922d65a4c16f4c7

Previous hash181ae67cb763c86b5d94187d997cdde7bf4782560ba8f2a6ee0d171906f24d73