Ledger / Prediction #1386 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
38 of 1343 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (22 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.46×.
Made2026-10-11 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 08:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3042222370938428,
"momentum": 0.38088541968933187,
"diversity": -0.20526315789473681
},
"rawProbability": 0.5448403300237697
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.04192546583850932,
"share60": 0.028645833333333332,
"total15": 321,
"total60": 1343,
"momentum": 1.4635798983625072,
"diversity": 0.5789473684210527,
"launches15": 13,
"launches60": 38,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 22
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 152,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9984825,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9984825
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5448403300237697
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 08:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.207
Log loss0.607
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.04361873990306947,
"shareRatio": 1.5389767617370522,
"totalAfter": 1238,
"shareBefore": 0.02823179791976226,
"totalBefore": 1346,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 54,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 38
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.82% → 4.36% (+55%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5bd2f0df1720ff3c379b6353da69a77faf4c4032b978e91769327adf3c3d036dPrevious hash
e1b669de6519ca8b7b92169c659064fa1fba8f2174240f7ee28baba7f67174eb