Will "elon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 1462 launches in the last hour referenced "elon" (30 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.73×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": 0.5499541445040992,
      "diversity": -0.23333333333333328
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5923171638128666
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "elon",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.06456456456456457,
    "share60": 0.03725222146274778,
    "total15": 332,
    "total60": 1462,
    "momentum": 1.73317354051299,
    "diversity": 0.5555555555555556,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935361111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935361111111111
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5923171638128666
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02088167053364269,
  "shareRatio": 0.5739971356862301,
  "totalAfter": 1293,
  "shareBefore": 0.036709721278042146,
  "totalBefore": 1471,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity