Ledger / Prediction #1369 · narrative · 1H

Will "moneyy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

92 of 1462 launches in the last hour referenced "moneyy" (4 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.59×.

Made2026-10-11 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 07:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.436852599692241,
      "momentum": 0.46443870535232157,
      "diversity": -0.8478260869565217
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.438676590339032
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "moneyy",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.1006006006006006,
    "share60": 0.06322624743677376,
    "total15": 332,
    "total60": 1462,
    "momentum": 1.5911208505803098,
    "diversity": 0.043478260869565216,
    "launches15": 33,
    "launches60": 92,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935361111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935361111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.438676590339032
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 07:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.192

Log loss0.577

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.026295436968290797,
  "shareRatio": 0.4242783742010945,
  "totalAfter": 1293,
  "shareBefore": 0.06254248810333107,
  "totalBefore": 1471,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 92
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "moneyy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.25% → 2.63% (-58%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "moneyy" (1H). diversity contributed -0.85 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash64f19f685fbd5e09202fed2412b6c52c98da35bf54a203c6212eb83a2350d3a7

Previous hash3382da47043966469f354460e7a25600eaa670b877fade88f6f4018790e0db8e