Ledger / Prediction #1368 · token · 6H

Will $ESI still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. X link. Rides hot term "inu".

Made2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "4LTpsUBQz3zxV8VqabayVttzXaTK3NzYi4VGQcJTnaF2",
    "name": "eXtremely Super Inu",
    "symbol": "ESI",
    "hotTerms": [
      "inu"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3063.2079403607527,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 542,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 12:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3063.2079403607527,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3063.2079403607527,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6126.415880721505
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that $ESI would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,063, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $ESI (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3382da47043966469f354460e7a25600eaa670b877fade88f6f4018790e0db8e

Previous hashc331a7626fe9c5c30fd6bfc12059fbe7f108872eb949b4a580d3f80792fc0fae