Ledger / Prediction #1359 · narrative · 6H

Will "fundico" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

56 of 1402 launches in the last hour referenced "fundico" (25 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3623870667451573,
      "momentum": -3.3891026767788106,
      "diversity": -0.36428571428571427
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06454315604894897
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fundico",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.001358695652173913,
    "share60": 0.040270848182466144,
    "total15": 367,
    "total60": 1402,
    "momentum": 0.03373893805309734,
    "diversity": 0.44642857142857145,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 56,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 192,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966022222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994337037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.06454315604894897
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.067

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00013154433043935807,
  "shareRatio": 0.035411033604573885,
  "totalAfter": 7602,
  "shareBefore": 0.005522682445759369,
  "totalBefore": 10140,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 56
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that "fundico" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.55% → 0.01% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "fundico" (6H). momentum contributed -3.39 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash82d002da5eb95800d9f6303851c64ec456e46e1d45948f7a9bd22fc3b15b6f56

Previous hash629274c49a2dc46fdc060b61a5aa3a1790324ad7301f4ab4d036b55a67f119e7