Will "incognito" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
79 of 1402 launches in the last hour referenced "incognito" (44 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.95×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.41400149100493816,
"momentum": 1.081565295085716,
"diversity": -0.23164556962025318
},
"rawProbability": 0.642158464269462
},
"features": {
"term": "incognito",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.1671195652173913,
"share60": 0.05666429080541696,
"total15": 367,
"total60": 1402,
"momentum": 2.9492924528301887,
"diversity": 0.5569620253164557,
"launches15": 61,
"launches60": 79,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 44
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 192,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9966022222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994337037037037
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.642158464269462
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.012365167061299658,
"shareRatio": 1.565783529384854,
"totalAfter": 7602,
"shareBefore": 0.007889546351084813,
"totalBefore": 10140,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 94,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 80
}Predicted 64% that "incognito" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.79% → 1.24% (+57%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "incognito" (6H). momentum contributed +1.08 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
7f4e2881ad755d9f4a0e3f82f8a7c4686ccf7b03078b86c1ed6e6fedce7b06054a67571d3bcd9a678a65e1756806aef80643eb9d9330bdb8b836e7cd1b83e83c