Ledger / Prediction #1354 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

69 of 1402 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (44 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.25×.

Made2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3937002888244739,
      "momentum": -1.3989642138609424,
      "diversity": -0.13478260869565223
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.19153814264993477
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.012228260869565218,
    "share60": 0.04953670705630791,
    "total15": 367,
    "total60": 1402,
    "momentum": 0.24685251798561153,
    "diversity": 0.6376811594202898,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 69,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 44
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 192,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966022222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9966022222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.19153814264993477
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 07:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.037

Log loss0.213

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.036431226765799254,
  "shareRatio": 0.7455663997776519,
  "totalAfter": 1345,
  "shareBefore": 0.049005681818181816,
  "totalBefore": 1408,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 49,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 69
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 19% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.90% → 3.64% (-26%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed -1.40 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash72f9596d869e8547e367ab0fe2d4139e92f3601600459aa1bbb1c887ba9d6cc1

Previous hash683321a1b9e189613f82cd242920bb5ab94eef161644ccb921916684a825d629