GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1346 · narrative · 24H

Will "doginvest" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1284 launches in the last hour referenced "doginvest" (17 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 3.59×.

Made2026-10-11 05:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 05:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 05:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": 1.27798101092862,
      "diversity": -0.39
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5744299567621
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doginvest",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.11312849162011174,
    "share60": 0.03151750972762646,
    "total15": 357,
    "total60": 1284,
    "momentum": 3.5893854748603355,
    "diversity": 0.425,
    "launches15": 40,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999969907407408
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5744299567621
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 05:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.330
Log loss0.854
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00002374845635033723,
  "shareRatio": 0.04007585591838965,
  "totalAfter": 42108,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008781699794379712,
  "totalBefore": 46688,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "doginvest" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.09% → 0.00% (-97%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "doginvest" (24H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2f35608290caae88f375ec0f7474d00397b8764b838f1224842dbd362bd9b818
Previous hashb0c99b014e4d542be531c3bce4dc8c1e625b4771c8ae65f4a068dc9e4b1747b1