Will "halloween" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 1284 launches in the last hour referenced "halloween" (4 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.49×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": 0.40026255384070447,
      "diversity": -0.7909090909090909
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41457027577707256
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "halloween",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.051675977653631286,
    "share60": 0.03463035019455253,
    "total15": 357,
    "total60": 1284,
    "momentum": 1.4922164333689034,
    "diversity": 0.09090909090909091,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999987962962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41457027577707256
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0033487892838742917,
  "shareRatio": 0.3569838891819044,
  "totalAfter": 7764,
  "shareBefore": 0.009512827904295185,
  "totalBefore": 10407,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 26,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 99
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity