Ledger / Prediction #1341 · narrative · 6H
Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
67 of 1284 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (48 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.36×.
Made2026-10-11 05:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 05:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3892882060435298,
"momentum": 0.30453186521451614,
"diversity": -0.040298507462686615
},
"rawProbability": 0.5392851334446146
},
"features": {
"term": "cat",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.0712290502793296,
"share60": 0.05252918287937743,
"total15": 357,
"total60": 1284,
"momentum": 1.355990068280571,
"diversity": 0.7164179104477612,
"launches15": 25,
"launches60": 67,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 48
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 215,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999987962962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5392851334446146
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.291
Log loss0.775
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03413189077794951,
"shareRatio": 0.5753745456286916,
"totalAfter": 7764,
"shareBefore": 0.05938310752378207,
"totalBefore": 10407,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 265,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 618
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 5.94% → 3.41% (-43%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "cat" (6H). volume contributed +0.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
61bca4c9c4677821b45db31b2799aad8ba4b66f076dbbae11b5e04100a2f9462Previous hash
80da5583083612ef433aa34f3e3d51eb2f24f6662400dcd999f216a580f7c70b