Ledger / Prediction #1332 · narrative · 24H
Will "vote" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 1311 launches in the last hour referenced "vote" (7 distinct creators, rank #138). Last 15m momentum 1.43×.
Made2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 05:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": 0.3603839042285131,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5138532959798408
},
"features": {
"term": "vote",
"rank60": 138,
"share15": 0.00819672131147541,
"share60": 0.005716463414634146,
"total15": 304,
"total60": 1311,
"momentum": 1.433879781420765,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 274,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952141666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998005902777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5138532959798408
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 05:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.264
Log loss0.721
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0006894420274350379,
"shareRatio": 0.7045398307545696,
"totalAfter": 42063,
"shareBefore": 0.0009847365829640572,
"totalBefore": 46713,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 29,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 46
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 51% that "vote" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.10% → 0.07% (-30%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "vote" (24H). momentum contributed +0.36 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
d1ffc637ea9d7e4f3689fd4791b139a517918d8783f7cab3cf22b41ea7afe76dPrevious hash
b8aa9d36a633de4cc33b6d29961a0a8022f04a6fd96dcdbac8b342b39bbb91d3