Will "halloween" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1311 launches in the last hour referenced "halloween" (3 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.41×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -0.9018578082213987,
      "diversity": -0.7615384615384615
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.26736188946925843
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "halloween",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.00819672131147541,
    "share60": 0.020198170731707318,
    "total15": 304,
    "total60": 1311,
    "momentum": 0.405815032477575,
    "diversity": 0.11538461538461539,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952141666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998005902777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.26736188946925843
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0033045669590851816,
  "shareRatio": 0.813234351554287,
  "totalAfter": 42063,
  "shareBefore": 0.004067390233981975,
  "totalBefore": 46713,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 139,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 190
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity