Ledger / Prediction #1330 · narrative · 24H

Will "jack" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

27 of 1311 launches in the last hour referenced "jack" (5 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.

Made2026-10-11 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2529598430355343,
      "momentum": -1.4497247036677385,
      "diversity": -0.6777777777777778
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2249113092316159
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jack",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.004918032786885246,
    "share60": 0.020960365853658538,
    "total15": 304,
    "total60": 1311,
    "momentum": 0.2346348733233979,
    "diversity": 0.18518518518518517,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 27,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952141666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998005902777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2249113092316159
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 05:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.051

Log loss0.255

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0022585169864251242,
  "shareRatio": 0.719031371082644,
  "totalAfter": 42063,
  "shareBefore": 0.0031468756020807914,
  "totalBefore": 46713,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 95,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 147
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "jack" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.23% (-28%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "jack" (24H). momentum contributed -1.45 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3e562731dc395b46a6eac65fbd217693fa7ec453b09d8aaddcebce93ffa81945

Previous hash9527a8ba5ed425cb2db4fe28aef64fc57215139ab0cd12470790d29641d9e2db