Ledger / Prediction #1327 · narrative · 6H

Will "jack" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

27 of 1311 launches in the last hour referenced "jack" (5 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.

Made2026-10-11 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2529598430355343,
      "momentum": -1.4497247036677385,
      "diversity": -0.6777777777777778
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16628619042244805
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jack",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.004918032786885246,
    "share60": 0.020960365853658538,
    "total15": 304,
    "total60": 1311,
    "momentum": 0.2346348733233979,
    "diversity": 0.18518518518518517,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 27,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952141666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992023611111112
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16628619042244805
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.695

Log loss1.794

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009755463059313215,
  "shareRatio": 2.127174090799638,
  "totalAfter": 7688,
  "shareBefore": 0.004570801718621446,
  "totalBefore": 10939,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 75,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "jack" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.46% → 0.98% (+113%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "jack" (6H). momentum contributed -1.45 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 83% and wrong on "jack". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0733ee2c7b443a3e12baa8a9756ec2a2fdbbf104dabc0760e252d88968662bf7

Previous hash958a6145bbc7b10b8b58893846e60ca9fd30487f651f7b8187740ea861d94085