Ledger / Prediction #1323 · narrative · 1H

Will "extremely" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 79% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 1311 launches in the last hour referenced "extremely" (22 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 4.30×.

Made2026-10-11 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": 1.4589961928966226,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7928279517292335
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "extremely",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.10983606557377049,
    "share60": 0.025533536585365852,
    "total15": 304,
    "total60": 1311,
    "momentum": 4.301639344262295,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 33,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952141666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952141666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7928279517292335
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.629

Log loss1.574

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007107320540156361,
  "shareRatio": 0.29339806648575306,
  "totalAfter": 1407,
  "shareBefore": 0.025056947608200455,
  "totalBefore": 1317,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 33
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 79% that "extremely" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.51% → 0.71% (-72%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "extremely" (1H). momentum contributed +1.46 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 79% and wrong on "extremely". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfd5da6bc593a55cb8545b90218ce42faa019a69dedfa8f125fa1b6ef37eecca3

Previous hash32ada9107e7da9bfbaed48a535497780d322e505793d4720b775694d93413392