Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1311 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (26 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -1.2753713165229605,
      "diversity": -0.07894736842105261
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2058546042051011
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.00819672131147541,
    "share60": 0.02934451219512195,
    "total15": 304,
    "total60": 1311,
    "momentum": 0.2793272301469023,
    "diversity": 0.6842105263157895,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952141666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952141666666666
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2058546042051011
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.011371712864250177,
  "shareRatio": 0.4011769480519481,
  "totalAfter": 1407,
  "shareBefore": 0.02885345482156416,
  "totalBefore": 1317,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 38
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity