Ledger / Prediction #1321 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 72% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
71 of 1311 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (48 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.50×.
Made2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3979862946910822,
"momentum": 0.9149921704333135,
"diversity": -0.08873239436619719
},
"rawProbability": 0.7159064813389633
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.1360655737704918,
"share60": 0.054496951219512195,
"total15": 304,
"total60": 1311,
"momentum": 2.4967557033130805,
"diversity": 0.676056338028169,
"launches15": 41,
"launches60": 71,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 48
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 274,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952141666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952141666666666
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7159064813389633
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 06:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.513
Log loss1.258
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.02700781805259417,
"shareRatio": 0.5040428321678322,
"totalAfter": 1407,
"shareBefore": 0.053910402429764616,
"totalBefore": 1317,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 38,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 71
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 72% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.39% → 2.70% (-50%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.91 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
d1a516c1d201bfe1ab7a51ebdb2444795eaa943820fb300741a0387d6938ffe6Previous hash
3cf2b6db646be367bc301e5db1817501c0fea4f670febc3804114f60b51c56ef