GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1321 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 72% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

71 of 1311 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (48 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.50×.

Made2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3979862946910822,
      "momentum": 0.9149921704333135,
      "diversity": -0.08873239436619719
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7159064813389633
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.1360655737704918,
    "share60": 0.054496951219512195,
    "total15": 304,
    "total60": 1311,
    "momentum": 2.4967557033130805,
    "diversity": 0.676056338028169,
    "launches15": 41,
    "launches60": 71,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 48
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952141666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952141666666666
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7159064813389633
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 06:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.513
Log loss1.258
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.02700781805259417,
  "shareRatio": 0.5040428321678322,
  "totalAfter": 1407,
  "shareBefore": 0.053910402429764616,
  "totalBefore": 1317,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 38,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 71
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 72% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.39% → 2.70% (-50%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.91 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd1a516c1d201bfe1ab7a51ebdb2444795eaa943820fb300741a0387d6938ffe6
Previous hash3cf2b6db646be367bc301e5db1817501c0fea4f670febc3804114f60b51c56ef